Q&A › Category: Portfolio Management › Trump trade : How to protect my portfolio
Daniel Lin asked 2 years ago
Hi Rusmin/Victor With trump getting elected, I've read that his policies might possibly be inflationary be in the medium term, which may limit the extent to which the Fed can cut interest rates.  A large portion of my portfolio are in REITs and Banks, with an increasingly sizeable portion in dividend-growth businesses. In the face of a second trump presidency:
  1. what sort of impact might it have on my portfolio?
  2. What can I do to protect my portfolio? Should I hold more cash?
  3. Is it wise to allocate more to Singapore banks - given the potential inflationary impact. Yet, concurrently, the fed has already started on its rate easing path. 
Thank you for the knowledge as always. Regards Daniel  
1 Answers
Rusmin Ang Staff answered 2 years ago

Hi Daniel,

I'm not sure if I can answer your questions because there is no right answer to them. Moreover, we do not invest based on macro events. Election happens every four years. Fed changes the interest rate every now and then. They are highly unpredictable. It is hard if we invest in one way then change another way if we have different president or interest rate environment. That's why we invest based on fundamental of the business. We look out for businesses that are predictable that comes with wide moat, preferably one with pricing power. We may see some stocks get hit if they are exposed to trade tension which would likely intensify once Trump is sworn into office next year. We can avoid that area since trade tension has been ongoing for years and diversify our investment across different sectors. We go where the opportunities are and if there are no opportunity, we simply keep cash (stash them in SSB, etc). We have been doing it this way and so far, it works pretty well.

For the bank, Victor previously highlighted that their valuation is decent since the yield is still attractive, but not screaming buy like what we've seen during 2020/2021. If you already have position there, I think no need to add. For REITs, we highlighted a few times when they were low and neglected on our roundtables/Pro webinars. If you already own a few quality REITs, I think can wait for price recovery since Fed is expected to further cut the rate. We are not selling because of there are speculation that Trump's protectionism policies may bring up inflation rate again. Whatever the outcome, we must make sure that the stocks we are going to invest can always withstand any storm coming their ways. That's why you need to follow the criteria strictly and be very selective on choosing the best.